The One-Hour Rule for Investors

#127 - From idea to Series A - Weekly Newsletter

Jun 28, 2025

I went to the beach in England last Sunday to take advantage of the nice unusual weather. When I arrived at Camber beach, I paid for all-day parking - £30, pure highway robbery.

Once on the beach, hellish winds made it unbearable and I had to leave after just an hour. I should have paid for one hour, tested the conditions, then extended if worthwhile.

What made it worse? We went with two other families, and all three of us made the identical mistake - committing upfront without enough information.

This reminds me of certain pre-seed rounds. They're often terrible deals: maximum risk with limited extra upside compared to waiting.

It's far smarter to skip pre-seed entirely and invest at seed stage. Yes, valuations might be 30% higher or more, but you get actual traction signals to validate your decision.

Like investors, all three families rushed into the expensive all-day option because we were excited about the beach day (AKA FOMO). We let optimism override prudence.

Buffett says stock markets transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient.

In venture capital, maybe the real alpha comes not from getting in earliest, but from waiting for that crucial extra data point - even if it costs you a higher entry price.

2 Resources to pro

Developers are the new farmers.

Farming jobs: peaked in 1910 at 12 million jobs. Today? 2 million jobs. -80% jobs. Farming output: +600% in the same time frame. Manufacturing jobs: peaked in 1979 at 20 million. Today: 10 million. Half the jobs gone. Manufacturing output: Doubled in that timeframe. NO. JOB. IS. SAFE.EVERYTHING. CAN. BE. AUTOMATED.

Devs, AI is coming for you.